Projected supply and demand of radiation oncology: Can the workforce keep up?
In years past, concerns have been raised over whether a growing radiation oncology workforce would eventually outpace patient demands, but a new report brings positive news relative to the issue [1].
The “Projected Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncologists in the U.S. in 2025 and 2030” report indicates that staffing within the specialty will remain balanced in the coming years, with the number of professionals entering the field matching the projected increase in future demands. Findings from the survey, which was commissioned by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), were published recently in the International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics.
Co-first author of the findings Pranshu Mohindra, with the Department of Radiation Oncology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, and colleagues wrote that “we are at an inflection point where the future of radiation oncology in the United States is under sharp scrutiny because of concern for an oversupply of radiation oncologists.”
The group suggested that, in contrast to past concerns, this has resulted in debates among stakeholders and a recent decline in interest in radiation oncology among medical students. They considered this change, alongside other factors in their analysis, including projected new graduates entering the field, exits from radiation oncology, growth in Medicare beneficiaries and more.
The primary driving factor found to be most significant in their analysis was the projected growth of Medicare beneficiaries between 2025 and 2030. Change in work RVU productivity with hypofractionation and loss of indication impacted their predictions only moderately.
All things considered, the group concluded that “the most likely scenario was a balance of workforce supply and demand.”
However, they added that some scenarios do present the potential for imbalanced supply and demand in the future beyond 2030. They suggested that if radiation oncologist wRVU productivity reaches the highest region, oversupply could become a concern. There also is the matter of Medicare beneficiaries and whether that projected growth would continue to match the projections relative to new radiation oncology professionals entering the field.
More insight on the survey can be found here.
In addition to her background in journalism, Hannah also has patient-facing experience in clinical settings, having spent more than 12 years working as a registered rad tech. She joined Innovate Healthcare in 2021 and has since put her unique expertise to use in her editorial role with Health Imaging.