Rates of breast cancer diagnosis, death expected to climb in coming decades
New data from the World Health Organization’s Global Breast Cancer Initiative (GBCI) cautions that diagnoses and mortality rates will likely climb over the next two decades.
Formed in 2021, GBCI was established to create a framework for reducing global breast cancer deaths by 2.5% annually between through 2040. Although significant progress has been made in driving down deaths in the United States and other countries with high Human Development Index, the Initiative’s new data suggest these improvements are not equally distributed.
Using figures from the GLOBOCAN database, which includes 185 countries across the globe, experts analyzed trends in breast cancer diagnoses and mortality rates to estimate the 10- and 20-year trajectories of both. The team determined that by 2050, new cases will rise by approximately 38%, while deaths will see a steeper climb, potentially increasing by 68% globally.
These estimations disproportionately impact low-income regions where early detection initiatives are lacking. For example, in Melanesia, Polynesia and Western Africa, mortality rates are projected to be the highest, while Eastern Asia, Central America and Northern America are expected to see the lowest mortality rates.
Conversely, Australia, New Zealand, Northern America and Northern Europe are forecasted to have the highest diagnosis rates. This is likely owed to early detection initiatives in these areas—more cancers will be identified, but they will likely be caught at earlier stages when cancers are more responsive to treatment.
The importance of early detection
The report's findings are in line with data shared in the American Cancer Society’s annual Breast Cancer Statistics that were released in October. That report revealed that cancer rates have been steadily rising in the United States for decades, although deaths owed to breast cancer have declined by 44% since 1989.
Additional data from from Lexis Nexis Risk Solutions—a leading provider of data and analytics, released shortly after the aforementioned, further validated the finding of increasing breast cancer diagnoses in the U.S. However, the report highlighted a new trend—cancer diagnoses among younger women are rising at “troubling” rates. According to that report, breast cancer rates among women in their 30s increased 13% between 2021 and 2023.
Globally, the breast cancer burden is highest among women 50 and older. However, these figures also vary regionally. In Africa, for example, 47% of breast cancer diagnoses occur in women younger than 50. In comparison, 18% and 19% of women in North America and Europe are diagnosed before they are 50.
Each of these reports largely attribute the rise in cancer diagnoses among younger women to an uptick in screening, as newer risk assessment models have encouraged more to be screened earlier. Although additional region-specific research is needed to determine why certain areas have higher diagnoses in young women in the absence of substantial diagnostic resources, this latest report further emphasizes the notion that early detection is key to decreasing mortality.
“With 3.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths due to breast cancer projected in 2050, reducing the burden through primary prevention by intervention on known modifiable risk factors is possible, but only with concerted effort and political will,” the report reads. “Sustained investment and improvement in early diagnosis and treatment are also urgently needed, particularly in low- and medium-HDI countries, to reduce growing inequities in breast cancer survival and mitigate poor outcomes for the millions of additional women who will receive a diagnosis of breast cancer in the coming years.”
The full results can be viewed in Nature.
In addition to her background in journalism, Hannah also has patient-facing experience in clinical settings, having spent more than 12 years working as a registered rad tech. She began covering the medical imaging industry for Innovate Healthcare in 2021.